As the youngest-ever and first openly LGBTQ+ Chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, Dr Tyler Goodspeed spearheaded the U.S. economic policy response to the worst macroeconomic shock to hit the U.S. economy since the Great Depression. He advised the President on the largest fiscal response in U.S. history and oversaw the shortest recession and fastest economic recovery in U.S. history. Before the coronavirus pandemic, as Senior Economist and then Chief Economist for Macroeconomic Policy, he played a critical role in the design and implementation of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
In his academic career, he has held faculty appointments at the University of Oxford and Stanford University, and is currently a Kleinheinz Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He has published extensively on economic and financial history, particularly the role of access to credit in mitigating adverse environmental change. Dr Goodspeed has a PhD in economics from the University of Cambridge and a PhD in history from Harvard University. He also received a BA in economics and history from Harvard, an MA in history from Harvard, and an MPhil in economic history from Cambridge, where he was a Gates Scholar.
In addition to his academic appointments, Dr Goodspeed is also U.S. Director at Greenmantle LLC, a global macroeconomic advisory firm, and a Senior Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute.
Drawing on his role as the chief economist for the President of the United States during the worst macroeconomic shock to hit the U.S. economy since the Great Depression, Tyler Goodspeed discusses the geopolitical and economic trends underway in 2023. As both a PhD economist and PhD historian, he reexamines the lessons of the 1970s to offer insights into the likely path of inflation in the U.S. and globally in 2023 and beyond, and evaluates the probability that the U.S. enters a recession over the next 12 months.
Since 1945, the unconditional probability that the U.S. enters a recession in a given year is 16%. The unconditional probability that the U.S. is in a recession at any point during a given year is 28%. In this talk, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Dr. Tyler Goodspeed discusses the history of recession in the United States and United Kingdom over the past two centuries. As a PhD economist and historian who helped to steer the U.S. government through the deepest and shortest recession in U.S. history, with the fastest rebound, Dr. Goodspeed brings unique insight to the questions of when to expect an episode of economic contraction, and what to expect in the event of one.
As one of the earliest voices warning of the risk of a persistent inflationary shock in early 2021, in this talk former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Dr. Tyler Goodspeed discusses the inflation outlook in 2023 and beyond. As both a PhD economist and historian, he draws particularly on the macroeconomic experience of the 1960s and 1970s, and the disinflation of the early 1980s, to lay out the financial market challenges facing the Federal Reserve and other major central banks as they attempt to navigate back to their pre-pandemic inflation targets.
The four years of the Trump Administration witnessed economic changes of unique scale–the largest and most comprehensive tax reform in a generation; sweeping deregulation of the U.S. economy; a dramatic shift in international trade policy; the worst macroeconomic shock since the Great Depression; the biggest fiscal response to economic crisis in U.S. history; and the shortest recession and fastest recovery ever observed in the U.S. In addition, on the eve of the COVID pandemic, we had observed the biggest gains in real median household income in U.S. history, the biggest ever decline in poverty, and, in a sharp reversal of trends previously underway during the post-2008 recovery, declining wage, income, and wealth inequality. In this talk, the former Chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers discusses the effects and legacy of that economic policy agenda and offers lessons for current policymakers.
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